Shane Parrish

Quotes are word for word from the source.

• Ignoring base rates

  “When we receive information about the base rate of something, followed by some additional information, we tend to ignore the former.”

  Our noteShane discusses why people fail to account for statistical probabilities when presented with specific details.

• Bottom Line Risks

  “the "bottom line" mentality makes you rigid, unable to learn and adapt during the negotiation process and probably too focused on one single variable at the expense of other ones.”

  Our noteShane explains the downsides of setting a rigid walk-away price.

• Observing the obvious

  “I'd observed pigs on treadmills for hundreds of hours and had never thought about this. So Dennis and I started talking about how, when these pigs ran, their heads bobbed every which way”

  Our noteShane discusses how a simple observation led to a major scientific breakthrough about human evolution.

• Aligning Cycles

  “how do you do it when the policy cycle exceeds the electoral cycle? You've got to make sure the electoral cycle is in the equation.”

  Our noteBuffett discusses the difficulty of long-term planning when political incentives are tied to short-term elections.